The 2026 budget increase Greater Sudbury city council approves next month should be on the low end for the current incarnation of city council, coming in at less than 4.8 per cent.
That is, if history repeats itself.
There’s a civic election scheduled to take place on Oct. 26, 2026, meaning city council members are contending with an election-year budget.
Election-year tax levy increases tend to be low.
Of the previous five city councils dating back to the 2003 election, three recorded their lowest tax levy increase during an election year. The two city councils that didn’t both recorded their second-lowest tax levy increases during an election year, including one which was only 0.1 percentage point shy of tying with their lowest tax levy hike.
Every city council’s highest tax levy increase was recorded during either their first or second year in power.
During their first three years, the current city council notched their lowest tax-levy increase in 2023 (4.6 per cent), their highest in 2024 (5.9 per cent) and a 4.8-per-cent jump in 2025.
The City of Greater Sudbury’s base budget currently requires a tax levy increase of approximately 5.2 per cent, although this remains very much a tentative figure.
City council members will enter budget deliberations on Dec. 2, and within a few days are anticipated to approve a final budget.
Deliberations will include various business cases which propose service level changes and could steer the budget away from its tentative 5.2-per-cent levy increase.
To follow the trend past city councils established, wherein they approve either their lowest or second-lowest tax levy increase during an election year, city council would have to settle on an increase lower than the 4.8 per cent they approved for 2025.
Every $3.7-million change in the city’s 2026 budget equates to a one-per-cent tax levy change.
The current incarnation of city council has averaged an annual tax levy increase of 5.1 per cent, which is the second-highest average levy increase among the six city councils in power since 2003.
The 2003-2006 city council’s average annual increase topped the group at 5.77 per cent, while the 2014-18 incarnation notched the lowest average annual increase at 2.63 per cent, which includes a zero-per-cent levy change in 2015, the lowest on record.
Between 2002 and 2025, the city’s average annual tax levy increase has been 4.09 per cent.
Tyler Clarke covers city hall and political affairs for Sudbury.com.