A couple of years ago, I dashed off an exemplum of my initial impressions of a few artificial intelligence programs that became accessible to my keyboard.
Sudbury.com decided to print it. Every once in a while I write something that resonates and a few people will reach out to me.
A gentleman from Ottawa wrote me then and just recently, sent another erudite email of his take on AI.
To metaphorically describe those two emails is to describe a highly experienced explorer that is looking at a new ocean and is reasoning through what is required to begin navigating this new apparition.
This caused me to reread my nonsense and I don’t wish to overly brag, but I fancy it still holds up.
The aforementioned gentleman’s communication fomented thinking about AI again, and thoughts began percolating.
Quite often, I’ll get an idea rattling around my hair support system that I’d like to write about but don’t because my thoughts, while stimulating to me, are still inchoate and I’m not inspired enough to jot them down in a coherent form.
Well, I’ve got a couple of coffees in the system and while I’m surfing the caffeine wave I’ve decided to dash off two of my elementary preconceptions.
Job Creation
Often I’ll hear a self-anointed expert breathlessly assure the listening audience that we needn’t worry our pretty little heads that jobs will evaporate en masse. That instead, as before, all kinds of careers and industry are guaranteed to synthesize and emerge.
Almost always they use the Industrial Revolution as an example. And sure, moving from an agrarian society did create new avenues of endeavour. The village blacksmith morphed into an engineer at a steel production factory. The shepherd adopted to making a modest income as a fettler at a wool mill.
Sure, that did happen. But what is often left out is that not everyone successfully made the change. There were more previous farmers than fettler job openings. The slums grew in size.
The Industrial Revolution heralded the consumer age. All kinds of products were created, fostering the genesis of previously unimaginable primary and tertiary industries.
My contention is that we are to a degree already at maximum consumerism and a great deal of our manufacturing will continue to be captured by robots (a tangible form of AI). Complex industries like mining, steel production and car plants only employ 10 to 25 per cent of their workforce from but a few decades ago. China et al have some serious policy considerations to tackle in regards to their large manufacturing population and the encroachment of automation.
The computer software industry has also ironically laid off huge swathes of their workforce in the last year because they are just not needed anymore.
And lastly, the currently encouraged lateral move into the trades can only accept so many new recruits. While civilization-level valuable, the need for welders, plumbers and other craftsmen is not infinite.
Protected Guilds
Will AI be left to assault the working world unfettered?
Two examples.
The largest employer in the country is the government. Most of these jobs are by definition processes of administration. The very type of activity that AI is already quite adept at gobbling up.
Will the government allow the replacement of say 60 per cent of employees that are a cohesive and highly influential voting group? I wonder.
Lawyers. Will the administrative legal profession, which seems to supply a significant portion of our politicians, keep allowing access to that body of professional knowledge? I wonder.
I don’t like making predictions anymore. I think more in terms of suggesting possibilities with maybe a slight attempt at probabilities.
But for you, dear reader, I’ll offer a few.
This one is obvious and already in play. I predict that AI will not be allowed to be used by everyone for everything, everywhere. It’s not going to be free and there will be different levels (with limits) allowed for a cost. Please note, I wrote cost and not price.
And my last prediction is that our friend, the versatile human hand, is going to be our last stand. Our brain, eyes and other human attributes are already successfully imitated. But our hand, which can go from remorselessly moving mountains to feeling a grain of sand between the fingertips in the very next second, that’s going to take some time to replace.
But even there lurks vulnerability. Something doesn’t have to be better to replace a superior current item.
So, my fellow shoe monkeys, maybe we are going to get the chance to appreciate how our hairy ancestors felt when that new fangled wheel rolled into the neighbourhood.
Anyway, a “toast” to the future and being deemed useful somehow.
Douglas Miller lives in Greater Sudbury. A rotating stable of community members share their thoughts on anything and everything, the only criteria being that it be thought-provoking. Got something on your mind to share with readers in Greater Sudbury? Climb aboard our Soapbox and have your say. Send material or pitches to [email protected].